Bernie: St. Louis City SC Fired Head Coach Bradley Carnell? Harsh, But A Sign That This New Franchise Is Growing Up.

Wow. St. Louis City SC has sacked head coach Bradley Carnell? That was fast. My goodness, how it’s amazing how quickly everything changed for City from the wondrous inaugural season to the second campaign – including the coach’s job security.

After guiding City to arguably the best performance by an expansion team in MLS history, Carnell was cast aside after 20 matches in the club’s second season.

Is this harsh? Yes, I think so. But hear me out. Not that anyone cares what I think, but this is OK. City’s season was in an advanced state of deterioration. Intervention was necessary.

Carnell was a finalist for MLS Coach of the Year honors last season, and he would have been a worthy choice for the award. But the MLS is a lot like the NHL; coaches abruptly come and go at a substantial rate. They’re sipping cups of ice-rink coffee in the morning, only to disappear in the night. When in doubt, tell the coach to pack his knives and go. (Sorry, I’m channeling Top Chef.)

As a smart man once told me this about expansion teams:  we know a franchise is maturing and growing up when it makes a tough move by firing its first head coach or manager. It’s a rough world out there, and you have to be strong and do what you think is best, even if it seems nasty or hasty or both.

This makes sense. And Carnell’s outstanding coaching job in 2023 worked against him going into 2024. Expectations were raised to a higher level, and City’s high-pressure system wouldn’t be as effective at harassing opponents into mistakes. Carnell’s system caught opponents off guard in 2023, and they’d be more prepared to exploit it in 2024. Nothing stays the same.

If Craig Berube can be told to scram a few seasons after leading the Blues to their only Stanley Cup since their 1967 year of birth, it’s hardly shocking to see Carnell sent away after only 55 MLS matches (including postseason) as City’s on-field gaffer.

City is 3-7-10 this season and ranks 25th among 29 teams in points per match (0.95.) This is a huge drop from last season’s net of 1.65 points per match, a rate that shined as fourth best rate in the league.

This is also a boring team that huffs and puffs and labors to score goals. Not that scoring goals is easy, but it shouldn’t be as strenuous and difficult as climbing a mountain. Last season City ranked third in the MLS with 1.74 goals per 90 minutes, but has plummeted to 1.20 per 90 this year (23rd.)

Carnell’s team had plenty of opportunities to score but struggled to finish. The failure to convert chances is the equivalent of how poorly the 2024 Cardinals have hit when set up with runners in scoring position.

City had a massive home field advantage in Year One, earning 2.05 points per match at CityPark and outscoring visitors by 24 goals.

This season, the home team’s success inside the beautiful, vibrant, sold-out venue has dwindled to 1.27 points per match, and visitors have outscored City 12-11. After scoring an average of 2.41 goals per home match in 2023, City has wheezed to exactly one goal per match on its turf in 2024.Ugh.

City’s terrible, uninspiring showing in ‘24 qualifies as an across the board disappointment. Among other flaws, this City squad was poorly organized and pierced for too many goals. Too many times, personnel lacked discipline and composure and strayed out of position. City SC is in a state of disrepair. The issues are serious.

We can point to injuries – a legitimate factor. But City director Lutz Pfannensteil addressed the injury problem during a Monday news conference. “We did have injuries, but we had injuries last year as well,” he said. “At the same time, we still won enough games.”

We can also point to director Pfannenstiel’s apparent overestimation of his forward group coming into 2024. The transfer window will open soon, so …

“We still can rectify things,” Pfannenstiel said. “That’s the responsibility that I have to take to sign players, which will work out.”

When you have a bad team, a dull team, a low-scoring team, an error-prone team and a side that can’t erect the battlements to defend the home castle, this hideous combination will sour ownership-management every time.

City has lost some of the sparkle, some of the new-toy allure, some of the exciting freshness. But it isn’t too late to turn that around. Not that we should have expected a similar experience to the wonderful first voyage that City gave us last year – a downturn of sorts was coming – but there’s no reason for this club to fall apart so dramatically.

We must go back to late last season to trace the roots of Carnell’s demise. City tilted down the stretch, going 2-3-3 in the last eight regular-season matches. And that wasn’t the worst of it; the squad was flatfooted and seemingly unprepared for Kansas City’s ambush in the first round of the MLS playoffs. Sporting KC kicked Carnell’s team out of the tournament winning two straight matches. And wasn’t competitive. It was a real downer – and a stunner – after STL finished first in the Western Conference and fourth over