Falcons Firing Smith ‘If Late-Season Collapse’ Still Measuring Stick?

It’s been just three weeks since the Atlanta Falcons relinquished the lead of the NFC South with a last-minute home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but it might as well be a lifetime. In the days that followed Atlanta’s loss, coach Arthur Smith came under intense scrutiny. Soon thereafter, ESPN reported Smith’s job was safe – barring a “late-season collapse.” The Falcons lost their next game, 9-7, to the Carolina Panthers, who entered with a 1-12 record and have lost each of their last two contests, including a 26-0 drubbing by the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. It’s worth noting Jacksonville hadn’t won since November.

It was then reported Smith needed “strong performances” with his team sitting at 6-8 … and delivered exactly that the next week. Atlanta bounced back from its embarrassing road defeat with its largest margin of victory under Smith, taking a 29-10 victory over the Indianapolis Colts in the home finale. Talk subsided, if only just, as Smith’s odds of returning appeared to increase – and NFL Network confirmed as such this past Saturday night, stating Smith’s departure would be a “surprise” … but with the catch of Atlanta delivering “solid performances” in its last two games.

Hours later, Smith’s Falcons took their biggest loss of the season, a 37-17 loss on the road against the Chicago Bears (7-9), trailing by double figures for the final 34 minutes of Sunday’s game. So, now what? Is Smith coaching for his job next Sunday against the New Orleans Saints? Falcons owner Arthur Blank was requested for comment following the loss to Chicago but chose not to speak with reporters. But the truth of the matter is this: if Blank is deciding Smith’s fate just on the outcome of his 51st game as head coach, that alone should tell the 81-year-old owner all he needs.

Smith carries a record of 21-29 through three seasons in Atlanta; he went 7-10 in his first two years, both considered to be acceptable results due to the cap limitations set by the prior regime.

But this year was supposed to be different. The Falcons spent $190 million in free agency to affirm as much but find themselves with a 7-9 record entering the season finale.

Atlanta currently owns the No. 9 overall pick in April’s draft, and with a loss Sunday paired with a New York Jets win over the New England Patriots, will slide to No. 8 overall – the same pick it’s held each of the past two years.

In short, the Falcons would be staring at three seasons under Smith with identical results – same record, same draft pick, same offseason questions at quarterback and same subtle optimism hoping for a different outcome the following year.

Make no mistake, next Sunday’s game in New Orleans is important. The Falcons are still alive in the race for the NFC South, and if they win and the Buccaneers lose at the Panthers, Atlanta snaps its six-year playoff drought. Blank said recently making the playoffs isn’t necessarily a requirement for Smith to keep his job … but progress is. Can Smith survive if all of those aforementioned similarities come true? He’d rather not risk it – and remains focused on trying to guide Atlanta to the postseason.

“We’ve got life,” Smith said. “As bad as this one feels, I don’t know that you would tell (the team) anything different. We’ve got to go win this game.” Taylor Heinicke, who made his fourth start this season at quarterback for the Falcons after replacing Desmond Ridder for the second time prior to the Colts game, shared similar thoughts to his coach. “It feels really shitty right now, to come up here and get beat like that,” Heinicke said. “But the fact we still have a chance going into week 18, that’s what you want. If someone told us week 18 you’re going to have a chance to go to the playoffs, you’ll take it.

“That’s where we are right now. We’re going to focus on the Saints, go up there and beat them and root for the Panthers this weekend.” The Falcons certainly do still have a chance – but they’ve tripped themselves time and again this year, stripping the opportunity to control their own destiny. It goes beyond Sunday’s 20-point loss to Chicago. There are three teams in the NFL with records of 4-12 – the Washington Commanders, New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals. Toss in the Panthers at 2-14, and those four organizations make up the NFL’s worst squads. The Falcons have lost to three of them – all but the Patriots.

Atlanta more than doubled Washington in total yards but saw quarterback Desmond Ridder throw three interceptions. Arizona and Carolina both won on last-second field goals. Smith’s team also lost on the road to the Tennessee Titans (5-11), who own the No. 7 overall pick, as rookie quarterback Will Levis tossed four touchdowns in his debut. Additionally, the Falcons took a loss to the Minnesota Vikings (7-9) in the closing seconds as backup quarterback Josh Dobbs, acquired via trade days earlier and still learning the offense, threw a game-winning touchdown, one of three touchdowns he was responsible for.

Those were all winnable games, not just on paper but also with the opportunities presented in the fourth quarter. Sunday’s loss wasn’t quite the same story. “There’s definitely some games we lost I feel like we should’ve won – today wasn’t one of them,” defensive end Calais Campbell said postgame, via FOX5’s Kelly Price. “They just played a great game, way better than us. The ones that come down to one score, those ones hurt a lot. “This one hurts a lot too, but it’s like, ‘Wow, we just got beat. We got handled.'” Part of the frustration for Campbell, a 37-year-old veteran and respected leader, is the Falcons have enjoyed stretches of legitimate success.

While Atlanta’s 2-5 against teams picking in the draft’s top-10 selections, it’s 3-3 in games versus current playoff teams, including the convincing win over Indianapolis just a week before the blowout loss in Chicago. Inconsistency has been a problem for the Falcons all year, with Smith noting it’s more than just the win-loss column, but the proof exists that Atlanta’s capable of playing at a high level when it’s on. The issue is that Smith’s team hasn’t been able to stack wins – headlined by the Falcons failing to record three consecutive victories during his tenure.

“There’s been a lot of ups and downs,” Campbell said. “There’s moments where we look like a team that’s legit, that can go win a Super Bowl, and there’s moments where we look like a team that isn’t very good.” In this case, the Falcons looked legit against the Colts, who are 9-7 and currently hold a wildcard spot in the AFC. Just seven days later, Atlanta was worse than “not very good” against Chicago. Why can’t the Falcons put it all together? Campbell doesn’t know. Smith’s been trying to figure it out all season – but really for three years. Now, Blank has to decide if he can handle another year spent at the drawing board. Perhaps the bigger question here is this – are the Falcons in “late-season collapse” territory?

With a loss to New Orleans in Week 18, Atlanta would finish the year at 1-4, with the wheels falling off after taking sole possession of the NFC South. One has to assume not just losing the division and missing the playoffs but suffering the uninspiring defeats the Falcons have falls into the category of a collapse. At 2-3, it’s a more interesting debate, but Smith probably gets the benefit of the doubt in such a situation.

But regardless, Blank now has the city of Atlanta focused on his decision – the last thing he expected as recently as this September. Progress was a requirement … and through 16 games, there simply hasn’t been enough. “At the end of the day, it’s a results-oriented business and you’ve got to get the job done,” Campbell said. “And when you don’t, everyone wants answers.” Blank will get the final say – but whatever he decides shouldn’t come down to whether the Falcons win or lose Sunday.

Instead, it should be about the last three years, and whether he feels Smith’s done enough with the rebuilding effort and locker room culture to turn things around in 2024. After all, what’s the difference between 21-30 and 22-29? Blank’s known for his patience, and he’s not particularly eager to start fresh on the sidelines … but he may have no other choice.