Jannik Sinner remains the clear frontrunner to ascend to the world No. 1 ranking after the French Open, despite the unexpected move by Novak Djokovic to compete in the Geneva Open, which could inject some unpredictability into the narrative.
At present, Sinner is poised to unofficially claim the top spot next week, as Djokovic faces a significant drop of 2,000 points as the defending champion at Roland Garros, while Sinner’s semi-final exit in 2023 will only cost him 45 points.
Before Djokovic’s surprising decision to enter the ATP 250 event in Switzerland, the calculations for the world No. 1 ranking appeared straightforward, with Sinner expected to carry an 865-point lead into Roland Garros.
This scenario implied that the 24-time Grand Slam champion needed to at least reach the final of the tournament to maintain any chance of staying ahead of Sinner in the rankings after the Paris event.
Current Rankings After 2023 Roland Garros Points Deduction (Pre-Geneva)
1. Jannik Sinner – 8,725 points
2. Novak Djokovic – 7,860
3. Carlos Alcaraz – 6,580
4. Daniil Medvedev – 6,335
5. Alexander Zverev – 5,625
If Djokovic had successfully defended his title in Paris, Sinner would have required a runner-up finish to thwart Djokovic’s claim to the top spot. Conversely, if Djokovic had lost in the final, Sinner would have officially claimed the world No. 1 ranking by reaching the semi-final.
However, Djokovic opted to participate in the Geneva Open to gain match practice ahead of the French Open. With only six matches played on the surface this year, the three-time Roland Garros winner aims to refine his game on clay before the Paris event commences on Sunday.
What implications arise if Djokovic performs well this week?
For his impact on the rankings after the French Open, he must reach at least the semi-final in Switzerland. Achieving this would earn him 90 points, narrowing Sinner’s lead at Roland Garros to 775 points.
Consequently, Djokovic could retain the top spot by reaching the semi-final (worth 800 points), contingent upon Sinner failing to progress beyond the first round at Roland Garros.
If Djokovic clinches the title in Geneva, he would further reduce Sinner’s lead to 615 points, necessitating Djokovic to again reach at least the semi-final, while Sinner would have to exit the clay-court Grand Slam before the fourth round.
However, uncertainties loom over Sinner’s participation at the French Open, as the reigning Australian Open champion has been sidelined since early May.
Suffering a hip injury during his third-round match at the Madrid Open, Sinner persevered through the match against Pavel Kotov and secured victory over Karen Khachanov. Nonetheless, he withdrew from his quarter-final match and subsequently skipped the Italian Open.
