SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND - MARCH 03: Detail view of a corner flag ahead of the Premier League match between Southampton and Stoke City at St Mary's Stadium on March 3, 2018 in Southampton, England. (Photo by Jordan Mansfield/Getty Images)
SAINTS have now lost three games in the Championship season, causing some concern on the outside.
Before the first ball was kicked, the club had made it clear that they wanted to return to the Premier League via automatic promotion.
With one of the league’s largest budgets and most appealing projects, it is not an entirely unreasonable expectation to have placed on the new manager, Russell Martin.
Saints were promoted from the division in 2012 with 88 points, having lost four matches and allowing 46 goals on average.
Saints have been likened to Burnley’s success last season in the aftermath of three consecutive defeats, already matching their total amount of defeats in 39 less outings.
The Clarets won the Championship in their first season back, but their three defeats were the fewest of any team in the division since 2012, making them an oddity.
Sheffield United won automatic promotion despite losing 11 games that season. Hull City’s 15 defeats in 2013 are the most by an automatically promoted club.
The average number of fixtures lost by the 24 teams that have been automatically promoted since, including Saints in 2012, is 8.5.
Losing three games in a row is not a good omen, especially in a Championship with strong former Premier League teams, but it is unlikely to be fatal.
The automatically promoted 24 teams have gathered over 91 points on average, however that includes league winners who certainly scored above the required threshold.
Only three times has a team received automatic promotion with fewer than 87 points. Hull had the fewest of any team in 2013, with 79.
The Tigers also conceded the second-most goals of any automatically promoted team, totaling 52 in 46 games. Only Norwich City (57) shipped more in 2019.
Using a mean average from the start of the 2011-12 season, the 24 automatically promoted teams have averaged 41 goals.
Saints have already conceded 17 goals in seven games, and if the previous games are repeated, Saints would lose roughly 20 games, concede more than 110 goals, and amass around 66 points.
On present trends, Saints are outperforming even the clubs that came closest to promotion – but this isn’t about predicting where they’ll end up.
With a new manager bringing in an entirely different style of play, substantial player turnover, and some injuries, current performance is likely to improve.
However, based on an average season while Saints were still in the Premier League, Saints should be averaging at least 87 points and surrendering no more than 57 goals.
That would imply earning 77 points out of the 117 available and conceding no more than 40 goals; yet, Martin’s method allows you to concede three and still win.
If the Saints do not win automatic promotion at the end of the season, they will have to go through the playoffs to reclaim their spot in the Premier League.
The playoffs are a lottery, but they nevertheless give you a one-in-four chance of accomplishing your goals despite failing to satisfy requirements throughout the regular season.
The total number of points received,
However, based on an average season while Saints were still in the Premier League, Saints should be averaging at least 87 points and surrendering no more than 57 goals.
In 2016-17, it took 80 points to qualify for the play-off semi-finals, the most of any season. Leicester City had the fewest in 2012-13, with 68.
When the average points total of the clubs who placed sixth and qualified for the playoffs in the final berth is calculated, the magic number is discovered to be around 74.That would imply earning 77 points out of the 117 available and conceding no more than 40 goals; yet, Martin’s method allows you to concede three and still win.
If the Saints
This season could be radically different, but the mathematics show that Saints need at least 64 more points from their remaining 39 games to be in with a chance of promotion.
The sample size is also not representative of the league’s whole history, because competition in the Championship changes each year due to financial disparities.
One thing is certain for Martin and the Saints: improvement on current form is required for this season to be a complete success – but we already knew that.
Championship’s promoted teams since 2011-12
Club – Matches lost (goals conceded) – Points total
2023
Title – Burnley – three (35GC) – 101
Automatic – Sheffield United – 11 (39GC) – 91
Playoff – Luton Town – eight (39GC) – 80
2022
Title – Fulham – 10 (43GC) – 90
Automatic – AFC Bournemouth – eight (39GC) – 88
Playoff – Nottingham Forest – 12 (45GC) – 80
2021
Title – Norwich – seven (36GC) – 97
Automatic – Watford – nine (30GC) – 91
Playoff – Brentford – seven (42GC) – 87
2020
Title – Leeds United – nine (35GC) – 93
Automatic – West Brom – seven (45GC) – 83
Playoff – Fulham – 11 (48GC) – 81
2019
Title – Norwich – six (57GC) – 94
Automatic – Sheffield United – nine (41GC) – 89
Playoff – Aston Villa – 10 (61GC) – 76
2018
Title – Wolves – seven (39GC) – 99
Automatic – Cardiff City – 10 (39GC) – 90
Playoff – Fulham – eight (46GC) – 88
2017
Title – Newcastle United – 10 (40GC) – 94
Automatic – Brighton – nine (40GC) – 93
Playoff – Huddersfield Town – 15 (58C) – 81
2016
Title – Burnley – five (35GC) – 93
Automatic – Middlesbrough – nine (31GC) – 89
Playoff – Hull City – 11 (69GC) – 83
2015
Title – AFC Bournemouth – eight (45GC) – 90
Automatic – Watford – 11 (50GC) – 89
Playoff – Norwich – 10 (48GC) – 86
2014
Title – Leicester City – six (43GC) – 102
Automatic – Burnley – five (37GC) – 93
Playoff – QPR – 12 (44GC) – 80
2013
Title – Cardiff City – nine (45GC) – 87
Automatic – Hull City – 15 (52GC) – 79
Playoff – Crystal Palace – 12 (62GC) – 72
2012
Title – Reading – 11 (41GC) – 89
Automatic – Southampton – 10 (46GC) – 88
Playoff – West Ham – eight (48GC) – 86
